Tech & Science

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic66% Google18% OpenAI12% DeepSeek2%

$1,279,264 volume · Closes Dec 31, 2026

On Dec 31, 2026. If OpenAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 12099% Above 14075% Above 1459% Above 1504%

$841,721 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

In 2026. If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score58% At least 1600 score6% At least 1650 score3% At least 1750 score3%

$463,152 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before 2027. If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Space

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026 98% Yes No

Before Dec 11, 2026 96% Yes No

Before Nov 15, 2026 62% Yes No

$150,868 vol +2 more · Closes Dec 11, 2026

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

above 1490 15% Yes No

above 1505 11% Yes No

above 1500 10% Yes No

$134,800 vol +14 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Space

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

17%

chance

Yes —No —

$101,570 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030

Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

Above 6 97% Yes No

Above 7 89% Yes No

Above 8 52% Yes No

$101,083 vol +8 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Space

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

70%

chance

Yes —No —

$98,856 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030

Best AI model at year end?

Lab A 46% Yes No

Lab B 30% Yes No

Lab C 16% Yes No

$82,753 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

16%

chance

Yes —No —

$61,897 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Space

Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?

Before Jan 1, 2035 42% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2033 36% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2031 27% Yes No

$48,909 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 1, 2035

Space

Crewed Moon landing before 2028?

24%

chance

Yes 25¢No 77¢

$47,170 vol Closes Dec 9, 2027

Google market share this week

Above 10.5% 99% Yes No

Above 12.3% 98% Yes No

Above 13.2% 94% Yes No

$30,393 vol +6 more · Closes in 2d

Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?

64%

chance

Yes —No —

$29,634 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Before 2028 68% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 54% Yes No

Before 2027 13% Yes No

$28,384 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027 20% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 17% Yes No

$22,762 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Meta 83% Yes No

OpenAI 18% Yes No

$15,505 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

OpenAI 92% Yes No

Anthropic 90% Yes No

Xiaomi 58% Yes No

$11,432 vol +15 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Anthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Google 73% Yes No

Anthropic 27% Yes No

$4,540 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Alibaba vs Xiaomi: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Xiaomi 52% Yes No

Alibaba 49% Yes No

$3,396 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Space

Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Sep 1, 2027 93% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 88% Yes No

$2,317 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Before Jan 1, 2029 73% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 53% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 12% Yes No

$2,199 vol Closes Dec 31, 2028

Astra 6.1+ debut arena score

Above 1420 99% Yes No

Above 1430 50% Yes No

Above 1440 50% Yes No

$1,242 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027

32%

chance

Yes —No —

$117 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Fable 5.2+ debut arena score

Above 1490 66% Yes No

Above 1530 53% Yes No

Above 1550 52% Yes No

$83 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will AI score above 185 on Epoch Capabilities Index?

Before Dec 1, 2026 99% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 — Yes No

Before Feb 1, 2027 — Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Jul 1, 2027

Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

Claude 95% Yes No

Qwen 95% Yes No

ChatGPT 95% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes Nov 30, 2026

Top Coding AI this week

Claude 95% Yes No

Qwen 95% Yes No

ChatGPT 95% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes in 2d

Opus 5.6+ debut arena score

Above 1500 50% Yes No

Above 1510 50% Yes No

Above 1520 50% Yes No

$0 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027