Elections

2028

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Jon Ossoff26% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15% Gavin Newsom11% Kamala Harris5%

$293,135,044 volume · Closes Nov 7, 2028

In 2028. If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Senate

Alaska Senate winner?

Democratic party99% Republican party1%

$50,842,817 volume · Closes Nov 3, 2027

In 2026. If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 24998% Below 2101% 210-2131% 214-2171%

$11,189,805 volume · Closes Feb 1, 2027

On Feb 1, 2027. If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Senate

120th Congress: Who will be Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer 86% Yes No

Chris Van Hollen 13% Yes No

John Thune 2% Yes No

$3,660,870 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 3, 2028

Senate

Closest Senate race in 2026?

Mississippi 99% Yes No

Minnesota 1% Yes No

New Hampshire 1% Yes No

$3,532,509 vol +17 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

Governor

Alaska Governor winner?

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99% Yes No

Tom Begich 1% Yes No

Mary Peltola 1% Yes No

$1,405,816 vol +13 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027

2028

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Brad Carson 96% Yes No

Pete Buttigieg 94% Yes No

Andy Beshear 92% Yes No

$1,345,133 vol +43 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Governor

Alaska Governor winner? (Party)

Democratic party 99% Yes No

Republican party 1% Yes No

$934,838 vol Closes Nov 3, 2027

House

Alaska House winner?

Nick Begich III 99% Yes No

Eric Hafner 1% Yes No

Bill Hill 1% Yes No

$887,749 vol Closes Nov 3, 2027

2028

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

Democratic party 68% Yes No

Republican party 33% Yes No

$859,820 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

2028

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ron DeSantis 88% Yes No

Ted Cruz 86% Yes No

John McEntee 74% Yes No

$722,833 vol +42 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Governor

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Kansas 95% Yes No

Alaska 5% Yes No

Nebraska 2% Yes No

$429,771 vol +21 more · Closes Jan 20, 2027

2028

2028 Presidential matchup

Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance 12% Yes No

Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio 11% Yes No

AOC v. JD Vance 8% Yes No

$393,607 vol +27 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

House

How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

At least 258 99% Yes No

At least 262 5% Yes No

At least 270 2% Yes No

$320,755 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

House

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Hakeem Jeffries 95% Yes No

Katherine Clark 2% Yes No

Steve Scalise 2% Yes No

$229,016 vol +6 more · Closes Jan 3, 2028

Senate

Alaska Governor-Senate combo

Democrats sweep 97% Yes No

Republican Governor, Democratic Senator 4% Yes No

Democratic Governor, Republican Senator 3% Yes No

$187,621 vol +1 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027

2028

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance 10% Yes No

AOC defeats JD Vance 7% Yes No

Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio 7% Yes No

$182,898 vol +29 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)

Above 211 99% Yes No

Above 214 99% Yes No

Above 217 99% Yes No

$170,953 vol +20 more · Closes Feb 1, 2027

House

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Democrats, ≥2% 99% Yes No

Democrats, ≥4% 99% Yes No

Democrats, ≥5% 99% Yes No

$168,037 vol +16 more · Closes Feb 3, 2027

2028

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

95%

chance

Yes —No —

$109,326 vol Closes Dec 1, 2028

House

Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

Nick Begich III 96% Yes No

Bill Hill 2% Yes No

Gavin Solomon 1% Yes No

$101,826 vol +4 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027

2028

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

New Hampshire 84% Yes No

Iowa 9% Yes No

South Carolina 4% Yes No

$101,048 vol +1 more · Closes Apr 1, 2028

2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Pete Buttigieg 27% Yes No

Andy Beshear 25% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11% Yes No

$98,028 vol +7 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

Senate

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House 85% Yes No

Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate 6% Yes No

Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor 4% Yes No

$70,382 vol +9 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027

2028

2028 U.S. Vice-Presidential Election winner

James Talarico 12% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% Yes No

Marco Rubio 7% Yes No

$64,269 vol +24 more · Closes Jan 6, 2030

2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Rahm Emanuel 23% Yes No

Ro Khanna 17% Yes No

Andy Beshear 13% Yes No

$49,588 vol +30 more · Closes Nov 1, 2028

Midterms

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 21 3% Yes No

At least 26 2% Yes No

At least 28 2% Yes No

$46,889 vol +5 more · Closes Feb 1, 2027

Senate

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?

Before Apr 1, 2028 65% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 44% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 30% Yes No

$45,491 vol Closes Apr 1, 2028

2028

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

chance

Yes —No —

$39,745 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

Senate

Alaska Senate election: number of rounds

1 92% Yes No

2 8% Yes No

3 4% Yes No

$38,991 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027

Senate

Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo

Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats 51% Yes No

Lula, Netanyahu, Democrats 9% Yes No

Lula, Bennett, Democrats 2% Yes No

$34,851 vol Closes Oct 27, 2027

House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?

At least 185 96% Yes No

At least 190 94% Yes No

At least 195 93% Yes No

$25,434 vol +15 more · Closes Feb 1, 2029

Senate

Arizona Senate winner? (2028)

Democratic party 71% Yes No

Republican party 29% Yes No

$23,375 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

2028

Who will run for president in 2028?

Thomas Massie 53% Yes No

Andrew Yang 42% Yes No

Marjorie Taylor Greene 34% Yes No

$18,686 vol +17 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

House

Australian House election winner?

Australian Labor Party 52% Yes No

Liberal-National Coalition 38% Yes No

One Nation 7% Yes No

$17,498 vol +1 more · Closes Sep 30, 2029

2028

2028 London mayoral election winner?

Sadiq Khan 34% Yes No

Dawn Butler 18% Yes No

Laila Cunningham 15% Yes No

$16,929 vol +6 more · Closes May 1, 2029

2028

Who will run for U.S. Senate in 2028?

Ben Wikler 82% Yes No

Tim Burchett 75% Yes No

Angie Nixon 68% Yes No

$13,623 vol +29 more · Closes Jul 1, 2028

House

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

D+5 to D+6.9 46% Yes No

D+3 to D+4.9 13% Yes No

D+7 or more 3% Yes No

$12,311 vol +6 more · Closes Mar 1, 2027

Senate

Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?

Alaska US Senate 99% Yes No

Texas US Senate 3% Yes No

$7,181 vol Closes Dec 7, 2026

Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2028)

Republican party 73% Yes No

Democratic party 24% Yes No

$7,098 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

Referendums

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Italy 3% Yes No

France 3% Yes No

Hungary 3% Yes No

$6,000 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

2028

Who will run for Pennsylvania Senate in 2028?

Chris Deluzio 81% Yes No

Conor Lamb 76% Yes No

Summer Lee 45% Yes No

$5,411 vol +9 more · Closes Feb 16, 2028

Referendums

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Fireworks Initiative 75% Yes No

War Materiel Act amendment 40% Yes No

Fair taxes for married couples 25% Yes No

$5,126 vol +1 more · Closes Nov 29, 2027

US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout

Above 900K 99% Yes No

Above 950K 99% Yes No

Above 1.0M 99% Yes No

$4,581 vol +9 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027

Senate

California Senate winner? (2028)

Democratic party 92% Yes No

Republican party 8% Yes No

$3,753 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

Governor

Aguascalientes Governor winner?

Toño Martín del Campo 53% Yes No

Leo Montañez 29% Yes No

Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez 14% Yes No

$3,211 vol +6 more · Closes Jun 6, 2028

2028

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

11%

chance

Yes —No —

$3,187 vol Closes Sep 8, 2028

Midterms

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

At least 2 12% Yes No

At least 3 6% Yes No

At least 1 4% Yes No

$2,953 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

Senate

Australian Senate election winner?

Australian Labor Party 70% Yes No

Liberal-National Coalition 13% Yes No

One Nation 5% Yes No

$1,975 vol +1 more · Closes May 20, 2029

2028

When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Sep 1, 2027 95% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 92% Yes No

$1,949 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

2028

Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?

J.D. Vance 18% Yes No

Ron DeSantis 14% Yes No

Marco Rubio 13% Yes No

$1,788 vol +34 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

Senate

Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)

Republican party 89% Yes No

Democratic party 10% Yes No

$1,639 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

2028

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

17%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,405 vol Closes Mar 1, 2028

Senate

Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?

Texas US Senate 91% Yes No

Maine US Senate 6% Yes No

$904 vol Closes Dec 7, 2026

Governor

Delaware governor winner? (2028)

Democratic party 88% Yes No

Republican party 11% Yes No

$574 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

Senate

Who will be elected Brazil's Senate President?

Davi Alcolumbre 63% Yes No

Rogério Marinho 20% Yes No

Tereza Cristina 14% Yes No

$549 vol Closes Feb 1, 2028

Senate

Alabama Senate winner? (2028)

Republican party 94% Yes No

Democratic party 6% Yes No

$496 vol Closes Nov 7, 2029

2028

Who will win a state in the 2028 Republican primaries?

J.D. Vance 60% Yes No

Marco Rubio 40% Yes No

Ron DeSantis 30% Yes No

$400 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will Trump's first 2028 endorsee lose the GOP nomination?

26%

chance

Yes —No —

$317 vol Closes Sep 30, 2028

2028

When will each party have 2 announced 2028 presidential candidates?

Before Apr 1, 2028 97% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2027 96% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

$200 vol +5 more · Closes Apr 1, 2028

House

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

9 or more 50% Yes No

10 or more 50% Yes No

11 or more 50% Yes No

$155 vol +7 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Governor

Akwa Ibom State Governor winner?

APC 86% Yes No

PDP 4% Yes No

ADC 4% Yes No

$100 vol +2 more · Closes Feb 6, 2028

Governor

Campeche Governor winner?

Morena 65% Yes No

MC 27% Yes No

PAN 4% Yes No

$50 vol +1 more · Closes Jun 5, 2028

Governor

Adamawa State Governor winner?

APC 44% Yes No

ADC 19% Yes No

NDC 16% Yes No

$50 vol +3 more · Closes Feb 6, 2028

Governor

Baja California Governor winner?

Morena 84% Yes No

PAN 12% Yes No

MC 4% Yes No

$26 vol Closes Jun 6, 2028

House

Closest House race in 2026?

MI-04 99% Yes No

MI-07 99% Yes No

CO-03 99% Yes No

$13 vol +31 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

House

90th Legislature: Who will be elected Texas House Speaker?

Senfronia Thompson 90% Yes No

Dustin Burrows 3% Yes No

Joe Moody 3% Yes No

$10 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 12, 2028

2028

Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

Jon Ossoff 50% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 32% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 32% Yes No

$9 vol +9 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$1 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

Governor

Delta State Governor winner?

APC 82% Yes No

NDC 7% Yes No

ADC 5% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Feb 6, 2028

Governor

Córdoba Province Governor winner?

PJ 54% Yes No

LLA 37% Yes No

UCR 5% Yes No

$0 vol Closes Oct 9, 2028

Governor

Benue State Governor winner?

APC 71% Yes No

PDP 19% Yes No

ADC 5% Yes No

$0 vol +1 more · Closes Feb 6, 2028

Governor

Bauchi State Governor winner?

APC 40% Yes No

APM 31% Yes No

PDP 9% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes Feb 6, 2028

Governor

Arequipa Governor winner?

Alfredo Zegarra 64% Yes No

Jenry Huisa 34% Yes No

$0 vol Closes Nov 29, 2027

2028

Will the 2028 Republican presidential primary be fractured?

11%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will the 2028 Democratic presidential primary be fractured?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

How many candidates will win a 2028 Republican primary?

At least 2 75% Yes No

At least 3 40% Yes No

At least 4 17% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

How many candidates will win a 2028 Democratic primary?

At least 2 98% Yes No

At least 3 60% Yes No

At least 4 30% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will the first Republican contest winner be the nominee?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?

Before Mar 1, 2027 97% Yes No

Before Apr 1, 2027 97% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 97% Yes No

$0 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

2028

Will anyone win every 2028 Republican primary and caucus?

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will anyone win every 2028 Democratic primary and caucus?

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028