Politics

Iran

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

3%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,094,569 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Before Jul 1, 2027 68% Yes No

Before Apr 1, 2027 53% Yes No

Before Mar 1, 2027 42% Yes No

$1,006,811 vol +3 more · Closes Jul 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?

Ted Cruz 5% Yes No

Michael Park 3% Yes No

James Ho 2% Yes No

$797,829 vol +39 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Iran

Will Donald Trump visit Iran?

Before Jul 1, 2027 5% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 1% Yes No

$484,185 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027

Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Below 36% 66% Yes No

Below 35.5% 51% Yes No

Below 35% 32% Yes No

$403,786 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Iran

Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?

2%

chance

Yes —No —

$345,409 vol Closes Mar 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

Before Jan 21, 2029 57% Yes No

Before 2028 19% Yes No

Before June 2027 12% Yes No

$278,334 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Iran

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?

Before 2028 15% Yes No

Before 2027 2% Yes No

$247,427 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

0 75% Yes No

2 5% Yes No

1 3% Yes No

$226,535 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

Trump

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Above 43% 4% Yes No

Above 44% 4% Yes No

Above 45% 3% Yes No

$179,418 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Congress

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

Before Jan 21, 2029 51% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 29% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 23% Yes No

$172,145 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

NYC

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

98%

chance

Yes —No —

$170,592 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

Will a cabinet member be impeached?

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Jan 20, 2029 94% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 91% Yes No

$166,195 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

SCOTUS & Courts

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito 46% Yes No

John Roberts 27% Yes No

Clarence Thomas 26% Yes No

$126,768 vol +6 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

Congress

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

Before Jan 20, 2029 56% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 45% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 28% Yes No

$123,107 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

NYC

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes?

Before 2029 45% Yes No

Before 2030 40% Yes No

Before 2028 27% Yes No

$110,977 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

NYC

Will Mamdani tax billion-dollar incomes in 2026?

2%

chance

Yes —No —

$100,276 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

NYC

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Increase 0.01-0.99% 40% Yes No

No change or decrease 0–0.99% 36% Yes No

Decrease 1-1.99% 7% Yes No

$90,681 vol +5 more · Closes Jun 1, 2028

Congress

Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026?

Howard Lutnick 76% Yes No

Sam Altman 17% Yes No

Mark Zuckerberg 9% Yes No

$84,298 vol +11 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Iran

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Before Apr 1, 2027 47% Yes No

Before Mar 1, 2027 41% Yes No

Before Feb 1, 2027 33% Yes No

$77,737 vol +2 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

AI

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

2%

chance

Yes —No —

$72,477 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?

Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists 7% Yes No

Republican National Committee v. Eakin 6% Yes No

Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche 6% Yes No

$69,618 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Between 400 and 449 20% Yes No

Between 350 and 399 17% Yes No

Between 450 and 499 17% Yes No

$63,234 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

AI

Will LLM restrictions become law?

Before 2028 31% Yes No

Before 2027 5% Yes No

$60,578 vol Closes Jan 2, 2028

NYC

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

4%

chance

Yes —No —

$59,379 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Iran

Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?

2%

chance

Yes —No —

$47,469 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

NYC

Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes —No —

$43,114 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)

At least 1 99% Yes No

At least 10 99% Yes No

At least 20 99% Yes No

$41,877 vol +2 more · Closes in 23h

NYC

Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?

71%

chance ▼4

Yes —No —

$39,334 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

NYC

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes —No —

$37,341 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Local

Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?

9%

chance

Yes —No —

$35,791 vol Closes Apr 1, 2027

Trump

How many states will Trump visit in Nov 2026?

At least 5 100% Yes No

At least 6 32% Yes No

At least 7 13% Yes No

$32,002 vol +4 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

NYC

Will NYC buses become free before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes —No —

$31,302 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Congress

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?

Roger Williams 41% Yes No

Debbie Wasserman-Schultz 39% Yes No

David Rouzer 32% Yes No

$29,472 vol +7 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

NYC

Will Mamdani raise property taxes?

10%

chance

Yes —No —

$26,478 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

NYC

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes —No —

$25,135 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Local

Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?

81%

chance

Yes —No —

$24,465 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027

International

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

World Trade Organization 26% Yes No

OECD 20% Yes No

World Bank Group 17% Yes No

$22,574 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

Local

Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?

79%

chance

Yes —No —

$21,122 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027

Trump

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

Above $1M 98% Yes No

Above $5M 83% Yes No

Above $10M 35% Yes No

$21,021 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

NYC

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Before Jan 1, 2030 31% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2029 13% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 5% Yes No

$18,748 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

AI

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court?

3%

chance

Yes —No —

$18,583 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

At least 1 76% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 18% Yes No

$17,770 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Congress

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

Before Jul 1, 2027 21% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 5% Yes No

$16,202 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?

8%

chance

Yes —No —

$16,031 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

NYC

When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?

Before Jan 1, 2027 14% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 14% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 8% Yes No

$13,581 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027

Trump

How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 43% Yes No

At least 3 39% Yes No

$12,643 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

AI

How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?

At least 1 77% Yes No

At least 2 64% Yes No

At least 3 52% Yes No

$12,515 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

AI

Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?

2%

chance

Yes —No —

$10,354 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?

5%

chance

Yes —No —

$10,099 vol Closes Jan 20, 2029

Local

Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?

15%

chance

Yes —No —

$6,853 vol Closes Sep 1, 2027

Local

Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?

17%

chance

Yes —No —

$6,496 vol Closes Aug 1, 2027

Local

Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?

82%

chance

Yes —No —

$6,080 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?

6%

chance

Yes —No —

$6,076 vol Closes Jan 20, 2029

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?

64%

chance

Yes —No —

$5,724 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Local

Will Illinois regulate data center energy and water use?

69%

chance

Yes —No —

$5,692 vol Closes May 1, 2027

Local

Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?

35%

chance

Yes —No —

$5,631 vol Closes Aug 1, 2027

AI

When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?

Before Jan 1, 2027 10% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 5% Yes No

$5,429 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Local

Will North Dakota ban cloud seeding?

9%

chance

Yes —No —

$5,273 vol Closes Sep 1, 2027

Trump

How long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?

At least 7 days 88% Yes No

At least 14 days 83% Yes No

At least 30 days 79% Yes No

$4,939 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

AI

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

Before Jan 1, 2028 71% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 49% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 32% Yes No

$4,737 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Trump

Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?

56%

chance

Yes —No —

$4,530 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Trump

How many House Republicans will vote to impeach Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 25% Yes No

$4,447 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?

72%

chance

Yes —No —

$4,434 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Local

Will Virginia require data centers to use clean energy?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$4,389 vol Closes Aug 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?

1%

chance

Yes —No —

$3,970 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?

26%

chance

Yes —No —

$3,512 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

AI

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Before Jan 1, 2029 31% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 20% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 6% Yes No

$2,517 vol Closes Jan 1, 2029

AI

Will China obtain an EUV machine?

Before Jan 1, 2030 70% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2029 54% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 30% Yes No

$2,088 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

Congress

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

Above 95 96% Yes No

Above 97 93% Yes No

Above 100 86% Yes No

$1,848 vol +4 more · Closes Feb 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?

77%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,794 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

NYC

NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?

Above $200 million 82% Yes No

Above $400 million 76% Yes No

Above $600 million 60% Yes No

$1,674 vol +4 more · Closes May 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

77%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,668 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?

53%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,643 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?

90%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,568 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

AI

Will DOJ sue a major grocery retailer over beef prices?

7%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,547 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Congress

Will anyone else in Congress change parties in 2026?

23%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,534 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?

Below 36% 95% Yes No

Below 35% 92% Yes No

Below 34% 84% Yes No

$1,341 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 27, 2029

Trump

How many Truths will Trump delete in Nov 2026?

At least 5 65% Yes No

At least 10 48% Yes No

At least 15 44% Yes No

$1,269 vol +2 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?

12%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,237 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?

20%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,216 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the House pass a bill expanding the Supreme Court?

15%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,166 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?

22%

chance

Yes —No —

$1,058 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Trump

How many bills will President Trump sign in Nov 2026?

At least 4 88% Yes No

At least 6 79% Yes No

At least 8 66% Yes No

$994 vol +5 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Trump

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?

At least 4 95% Yes No

At least 2 94% Yes No

At least 3 92% Yes No

$975 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

AI

How many articles will Pete Hegseth be impeached on?

At least 1 72% Yes No

At least 3 65% Yes No

At least 5 57% Yes No

$957 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Iran

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?

9%

chance

Yes —No —

$929 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?

66%

chance

Yes —No —

$834 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?

89%

chance

Yes —No —

$831 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

AI

Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?

Before Mar 1, 2027 9% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 5% Yes No

$826 vol Closes Mar 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?

85%

chance

Yes —No —

$819 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Local

Will Nashville commercial property tax relief become law?

62%

chance

Yes —No —

$787 vol Closes Jun 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?

70%

chance

Yes —No —

$714 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?

12%

chance

Yes —No —

$705 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

AI

Will a court order CNN back on Air Force One?

37%

chance

Yes —No —

$481 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will the Supreme Court have more than 9 seats before 2030?

24%

chance

Yes —No —

$478 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?

30%

chance

Yes —No —

$455 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Trump

Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling?

63%

chance

Yes —No —

$420 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?

51%

chance

Yes —No —

$404 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?

69%

chance

Yes —No —

$400 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

NYC

Will a court block NYC's horse-carriage ban before 2028?

22%

chance

Yes —No —

$396 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Trump

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

At least 1 94% Yes No

At least 2 67% Yes No

At least 3 41% Yes No

$377 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Congress

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Before Jan 1, 2030 51% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2029 26% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 18% Yes No

$312 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?

34%

chance

Yes —No —

$226 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Congress

Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Nov 2026?

17%

chance

Yes —No —

$225 vol Closes Dec 1, 2026

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?

76%

chance

Yes —No —

$210 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

AI

Will the Eisenhower Executive Office Building be painted in 2026?

20%

chance

Yes —No —

$201 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?

65%

chance

Yes —No —

$151 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

Congress

Will Congress pass a bill repealing any of Trump's tariffs?

60%

chance ▼1

Yes —No —

$138 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Trump

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration in 2026?

21%

chance

Yes —No —

$120 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Congress

When will Trump first veto a 120th Congress bill?

Before Jan 1, 2028 94% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 80% Yes No

Before Apr 1, 2027 55% Yes No

$96 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?

89%

chance

Yes —No —

$64 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

NYC

How many affordable homes will NYC finance in FY2027?

Above 15,000 90% Yes No

Above 20,000 79% Yes No

Above 25,000 69% Yes No

$64 vol +6 more · Closes Sep 17, 2027

NYC

NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?

27%

chance

Yes —No —

$61 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction?

77%

chance

Yes —No —

$52 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?

81%

chance

Yes —No —

$32 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028

NYC

Will a court rule NYC's pied-à-terre tax unconstitutional?

46%

chance

Yes —No —

$15 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Politics

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?