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Economics

Fed

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Above 2.75%99% Above 3.00%99% Above 3.25%99% Above 3.75%99%

$1,133,899 volume · Closes Dec 9, 2026

On Dec 9, 2026. If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Inflation

CPI YoY in November

Above 3.0%99% Above 3.1%99% Above 3.2%99% Above 3.3%99%

$870,940 volume · Closes Dec 10, 2026

In Nov 2026. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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Inflation

How high will inflation get this year?

At least 4.5%9% At least 5.0%3% At least 5.5%3% At least 7.0%3%

$604,416 volume · Closes Feb 14, 2027

In 2026. If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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CPI inflation above 3% in November?

41%

chance

Yes 42¢No 60¢

$485,083 vol Closes Dec 12, 2026

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Exactly 2 87% Yes No

Exactly 3 10% Yes No

Exactly 1 5% Yes No

$483,506 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2026?

2.1% to 2.5% 76% Yes No

1.6% to 2.0% 10% Yes No

2.6% to 3.0% 8% Yes No

$460,583 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2027

Unemployment rate in November?

4.3% 34% Yes No

4.4% 29% Yes No

4.2% or lower 21% Yes No

$443,981 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 5, 2026

CPI YoY in December

Above 3.0% 98% Yes No

Above 3.1% 98% Yes No

Above 3.2% 92% Yes No

$420,291 vol +18 more · Closes Jan 13, 2027

Core CPI YoY in November

Above 2.0% 99% Yes No

Above 2.1% 99% Yes No

Above 2.2% 99% Yes No

$362,778 vol +13 more · Closes Dec 10, 2026

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2028 99% Yes No

Before July 2028 99% Yes No

Before 2029 99% Yes No

$297,285 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2029

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 2 95% Yes No

Exactly 1 3% Yes No

Exactly 3 2% Yes No

$234,568 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Core CPI YoY in December

Above 2.1% 99% Yes No

Above 2.2% 99% Yes No

Above 2.3% 99% Yes No

$221,042 vol +12 more · Closes Jan 13, 2027

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

2%

chance

$205,302 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

32%

chance

$183,033 vol Closes Jan 26, 2029

US real GDP growth in 2036?

1.6% to 2.0% 55% Yes No

2.1% to 2.5% 11% Yes No

1.1% to 1.5% 6% Yes No

$158,459 vol +11 more · Closes Dec 31, 2037

US real GDP growth in 2035?

5.1% to 5.5% 45% Yes No

0.0% or Below 38% Yes No

2.6% to 3.0% 36% Yes No

$157,309 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2036

US real GDP growth in 2033?

1.6% to 2.0% 53% Yes No

1.1% to 1.5% 46% Yes No

0.1% to 0.5% 42% Yes No

$156,964 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2034

Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026?

10%

chance

$151,150 vol Closes Mar 31, 2027

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

20%

chance

$133,684 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030

Colombia minimum wage growth minus inflation in 2027

14%

chance

$123,531 vol Closes Feb 15, 2027

How high will CPI get this year?

Above 4.3% 12% Yes No

Above 4.6% 12% Yes No

Above 4.7% 12% Yes No

$101,075 vol +6 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?

Above 0.0% 91% Yes No

Above 0.5% 85% Yes No

Above 1.0% 77% Yes No

$95,287 vol +6 more · Closes Apr 29, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2032?

5.1% to 5.5% 46% Yes No

1.1% to 1.5% 41% Yes No

3.6% to 4.0% 40% Yes No

$79,122 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2033

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender 81% Yes No

Rebecca Patterson 37% Yes No

Marc Sumerlin 15% Yes No

$66,372 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 8, 2030

US share of global GDP in 2026

Above 25.1% 99% Yes No

Above 25.2% 99% Yes No

Above 25.3% 97% Yes No

$65,879 vol +8 more · Closes Jul 1, 2027

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Above 0.0% 96% Yes No

Above 0.5% 96% Yes No

Above 1.0% 93% Yes No

$64,585 vol +6 more · Closes Jan 28, 2027

December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 67% Yes No

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 29% Yes No

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 4% Yes No

$55,552 vol +3 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted 7% Yes No

Reserve President Removed 5% Yes No

Reserve President Rejected 5% Yes No

$47,854 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2028?

6.1% or Above 39% Yes No

1.6% to 2.0% 11% Yes No

0.0% or Below 9% Yes No

$43,931 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2029

US Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $29.8 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $30.0 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $30.4 trillion 99% Yes No

$40,138 vol +18 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2030?

2.6% to 3.0% 17% Yes No

2.1% to 2.5% 14% Yes No

1.6% to 2.0% 13% Yes No

$39,857 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2031

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Above 300,000 jobs 97% Yes No

Above 350,000 jobs 97% Yes No

Above 400,000 jobs 91% Yes No

$39,043 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 8, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2034?

0.0% or Below 16% Yes No

2.1% to 2.5% 15% Yes No

2.6% to 3.0% 14% Yes No

$30,515 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2035

US real GDP growth in 2027?

2.6% to 3.0% 15% Yes No

2.1% to 2.5% 13% Yes No

1.6% to 2.0% 12% Yes No

$30,303 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2028

Will Trump bring back manufacturing?

16%

chance

$28,184 vol Closes Jun 30, 2029

US real GDP growth in 2029?

2.1% to 2.5% 18% Yes No

2.6% to 3.0% 11% Yes No

3.6% to 4.0% 9% Yes No

$26,937 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 28, 2030

Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Michelle Bowman 35% Yes No

Christopher Waller 24% Yes No

Beth Hammack 18% Yes No

$26,759 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Above 3.50% 99% Yes No

Above 3.75% 99% Yes No

Above 4.00% 96% Yes No

$26,208 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 4, 2027

US real GDP growth in 2031?

2.1% to 2.5% 14% Yes No

0.0% or Below 11% Yes No

2.6% to 3.0% 10% Yes No

$23,621 vol +11 more · Closes Feb 29, 2032

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.2 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $6.3 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $6.4 trillion 99% Yes No

$21,686 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

How many government employees will Trump cut?

More than 100,000 13% Yes No

More than 150,000 9% Yes No

More than 200,000 6% Yes No

$20,273 vol +3 more · Closes Mar 4, 2027

How high will Brazil inflation get this year?

Above 4.75% 88% Yes No

Above 5.00% 45% Yes No

Above 6.25% 11% Yes No

$20,161 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

France Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $3.2 trillion 98% Yes No

Above $3.4 trillion 96% Yes No

Above $3.3 trillion 87% Yes No

$19,604 vol +11 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Australia Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $1.6 trillion 98% Yes No

Above $1.7 trillion 94% Yes No

Above $1.8 trillion 93% Yes No

$16,476 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 90% Yes No

Above 1.0% 82% Yes No

$15,693 vol +6 more · Closes Jul 29, 2027

South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026

Above -0.4% 92% Yes No

Above -0.2% 83% Yes No

Above 0.0% 75% Yes No

$15,487 vol +6 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

UK Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $3.4 trillion 98% Yes No

Above $3.5 trillion 98% Yes No

Above $3.6 trillion 98% Yes No

$13,031 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Germany Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $5.1 trillion 97% Yes No

Above $4.9 trillion 96% Yes No

Above $4.7 trillion 95% Yes No

$12,144 vol +7 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?

Above -25,000 95% Yes No

Above 0 93% Yes No

Above 10,000 84% Yes No

$11,978 vol +10 more · Closes Dec 4, 2026

India Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $4.0 trillion 79% Yes No

Above $3.9 trillion 50% Yes No

Above $4.2 trillion 50% Yes No

$11,181 vol +8 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

China Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $19.2 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $20.0 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $20.4 trillion 99% Yes No

$10,639 vol +13 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $1.6 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $1.7 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $2.0 trillion 96% Yes No

$10,137 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Japan Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $4.2 trillion 96% Yes No

Above $4.0 trillion 91% Yes No

Above $4.1 trillion 86% Yes No

$9,194 vol +12 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Russia Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $2.2 trillion 97% Yes No

Above $2.3 trillion 97% Yes No

Above $2.4 trillion 96% Yes No

$6,796 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

What will inflation in Brazil be in Dec 2026?

Above 3.50% 90% Yes No

Above 3.75% 90% Yes No

Above 3.25% 89% Yes No

$6,406 vol +7 more · Closes Mar 31, 2027

Next Fed rate cut?

Before 2029 91% Yes No

Before July 2028 84% Yes No

Before 2028 61% Yes No

$6,200 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2029

Canada Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $2.3 trillion 97% Yes No

Above $2.1 trillion 93% Yes No

Above $2.4 trillion 93% Yes No

$5,691 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026

Above $2.1 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $2.2 trillion 96% Yes No

Above $2.4 trillion 96% Yes No

$4,994 vol +9 more · Closes Apr 1, 2027

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Above 3.7% 95% Yes No

Above 3.5% 94% Yes No

Above 3.8% 94% Yes No

$4,944 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026

Above 1.0% 44% Yes No

Above 1.1% 37% Yes No

Above 1.2% 34% Yes No

$3,994 vol +11 more · Closes Dec 2, 2026

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Exactly 9 59% Yes No

Exactly 10 14% Yes No

Exactly 12 11% Yes No

$3,967 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 95% Yes No

Above 1.0% 95% Yes No

$2,270 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2027

Will Canada inflation be above Euro Area inflation in October?

2%

chance

$2,012 vol Closes in 2d

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October

Above -0.30 92% Yes No

Above -0.20 82% Yes No

Above -0.10 65% Yes No

$1,640 vol +4 more · Closes in 9d

US nominal GDP growth in 2036

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$605 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2037

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in November

Above -0.62 94% Yes No

Above -0.60 94% Yes No

Above -0.58 94% Yes No

$576 vol +7 more · Closes in 11d

US nominal GDP growth in 2035

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$244 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2036

Brazil GDP growth in Q4 2026 (YoY)

Above 0.5% 90% Yes No

Above 1.0% 83% Yes No

Above 1.5% 68% Yes No

$215 vol +4 more · Closes Mar 2, 2027

US nominal GDP growth in 2029

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 93% Yes No

$57 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2030

Total Fed dissents in 2027

Exactly 0 17% Yes No

Exactly 6 9% Yes No

Exactly 7 9% Yes No

$50 vol +11 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

US nominal GDP growth in 2034

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$40 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2035

Alaska diesel prices in Nov 2026

Above $7.1000 64% Yes No

Above $7.2000 32% Yes No

Above $5.9000 29% Yes No

$23 vol +11 more · Closes Nov 30, 2026

Fed decision in December?

Cut 25bps 61% Yes No

Hold 32% Yes No

Hike 25bps 4% Yes No

$15 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 14, 2026

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 93% Yes No

$14 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2029

US nominal GDP growth in 2027

Above 0.0% 96% Yes No

Above 0.5% 95% Yes No

Above 1.0% 95% Yes No

$6 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2028

US jobs revisions in the report covering November 2026

Above -100,000 91% Yes No

Above -50,000 69% Yes No

Above 0 34% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Dec 4, 2026

US nominal GDP growth in 2033

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$0 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2034

US nominal GDP growth in 2032

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 93% Yes No

$0 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2033

US nominal GDP growth in 2031

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$0 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2032

US nominal GDP growth in 2030

Above 0.0% 95% Yes No

Above 0.5% 94% Yes No

Above 1.0% 92% Yes No

$0 vol +10 more · Closes Jan 28, 2031