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Economics

Fed

Fed

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Above 2.75%99% Above 3.00%99% Above 3.25%99% Above 3.75%99%

$1,133,899 volume · Closes Dec 9, 2026

On Dec 9, 2026. If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Fed

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

Exactly 287% Exactly 310% Exactly 15% At least 43%

$483,506 volume · Closes Jan 3, 2027

In 2026. If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 202899% Before July 202899% Before 202999% Before July 202798%

$297,285 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2029

Fed rate hike. If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 2 95% Yes No

Exactly 1 3% Yes No

Exactly 3 2% Yes No

$234,568 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

2%

chance

$205,302 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender 81% Yes No

Rebecca Patterson 37% Yes No

Marc Sumerlin 15% Yes No

$66,372 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 8, 2030

December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 67% Yes No

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 29% Yes No

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 4% Yes No

$55,552 vol +3 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted 7% Yes No

Reserve President Removed 5% Yes No

Reserve President Rejected 5% Yes No

$47,854 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Michelle Bowman 35% Yes No

Christopher Waller 24% Yes No

Beth Hammack 18% Yes No

$26,759 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Above 3.50% 99% Yes No

Above 3.75% 99% Yes No

Above 4.00% 96% Yes No

$26,208 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 4, 2027

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.2 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $6.3 trillion 99% Yes No

Above $6.4 trillion 99% Yes No

$21,686 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

How many government employees will Trump cut?

More than 100,000 13% Yes No

More than 150,000 9% Yes No

More than 200,000 6% Yes No

$20,273 vol +3 more · Closes Mar 4, 2027

Next Fed rate cut?

Before 2029 91% Yes No

Before July 2028 84% Yes No

Before 2028 61% Yes No

$6,200 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2029

Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Above 3.7% 95% Yes No

Above 3.5% 94% Yes No

Above 3.8% 94% Yes No

$4,944 vol +9 more · Closes Dec 9, 2026

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Exactly 9 59% Yes No

Exactly 10 14% Yes No

Exactly 12 11% Yes No

$3,967 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October

Above -0.30 92% Yes No

Above -0.20 82% Yes No

Above -0.10 65% Yes No

$1,640 vol +4 more · Closes in 9d

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in November

Above -0.62 94% Yes No

Above -0.60 94% Yes No

Above -0.58 94% Yes No

$576 vol +7 more · Closes in 11d

Total Fed dissents in 2027

Exactly 0 17% Yes No

Exactly 6 9% Yes No

Exactly 7 9% Yes No

$50 vol +11 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Fed decision in December?

Cut 25bps 61% Yes No

Hold 32% Yes No

Hike 25bps 4% Yes No

$15 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 14, 2026